Maybe it’s my impending retirement, but I’m feeling a little salty these days. This my fifth draft about the highlights, low-lights and Aha moments of both IMAPS Symposium and SEMICON West.
And I can’t get it right.
All that comes up is my annoyance with carefully crafted messaging because nobody can talk (publicly) about what’s really going on with the U.S. government’s manipulation of a global industry that was cruising along just fine until Donald Trump decided to interfere, because he thinks he has a better idea.
See what I mean by salty?
I get it. To openly criticize the U.S. Government for its policies could be corporate suicide. Companies are forced to comply or risk losing market share, taking a hit to their bottom line, which can in turn spiral into layoffs. People’s livelihoods are at stake. Not to mention the shareholders expectations. One press release I got last week included a quote praising Donald Trump himself for bringing all stages of semiconductor manufacturing back to the U.S. I’m guessing CHIPS Act Funding was at stake.
In the end, I decided to leave my hip boots and shovel at home, ditch most of the presentations, and focus on the candid conversations I had throughout the weeks to both fuel and validate my opinions.
Clearly, this post is going to be a stream-of-consciousness dump of what’s really on my mind. (Deep, cleansing breath).
Let’s start on the upbeat
At IMAPS Symposium, I was inspired most by industry newcomer, Ethan Tetteh, of Applied Materials. I sat down next to him on the bus to the Welcome Reception at the Midway – (another highlight) and we got talking. In his three years in the industry, he’d never attended a conference of any kind. He’s got a BS in materials engineering from Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and works on reactive ion etch processes.
That’s a front-end process, so I asked him what made him want to come to IMAPS?
He said he’d been researching whether the advanced packaging space would be a good fit for his skillset. He self-funded his trip and used PTO to come to IMAPS to learn more.
He loved it so much, he’s joined IMAPS and hopes to support a new chapter in the Pacific Northwest, along with Deca’s Robin Davis. Just wait until you hear our podcast interview.
Meeting Ethan reminded me that although I’ve been writing the Advanced Packaging story repeatedly for 20 years, there is always a new audience wanting to learn about it. That’s why I’m glad Jillian McNichol has such enthusiasm for this industry. I’m hoping she’ll pick up where I left off, especially since it’s finally getting the recognition it deserves.
The highlight of SEMICON West the ribbon cutting at SEMI Quest exhibit at the Arizona Science Museum. What a great idea – creating a kid-size clean room where the next generation of engineers get some hands-on experience. If you live in Phoenix, check it out. The pop-up exhibit will be open until January 4, 2026. Your kids will love it.
And then the tequila whispered, tell them what you really think…
This inspirational message is on my new water bottle from the Town and Country Resort, where IMAPS Symposium was held. I decided to take its advice without the help of the tequila. (It is only 9am, after all). So here goes.
The only presentations I was interested in attending were those presented by government representatives, to get a better idea of the new administrations plans. At IMAPS, I looked forward to Dev Palmer’s Keynote, that was going to update us on the NAPMP. But it was cancelled after the U.S. Commerce Department voided Biden’s 7.4B semiconductor research grant deal. And then the government shut down, and six government speakers couldn’t make it.
Of the few presentations I did attend, the only person who told it like it is and didn’t mince her words was Jan Vardaman, of TechSearch International. She spoke about geopolitical shifts impact on advanced packaging in her SEMICON West Market Symposium.
Here’s the gist: Almost all the world’s advanced packaging is still done in Asia. Why? Because over the years, these regions have invested in the infrastructure and the advanced technology. Reshoring that to the U.S. isn’t a snap-your-fingers deal. It will take years to re-create what Asia has. And unless leading AI chip companies like Nvidia and AMD are ready to pay more for the advanced packaging than they do in Asia, investing in building out the infrastructure in the U.S. will be a complete waste of time and money.
On the issue of the 100K fees for H1-B visas, Jan explained that bringing manufacturing processes to the U.S. requires skilled workers to come in and set up those processes. If you impede that process, it is difficult to set up that operation in a timely fashion. It requires that those in charge understand what it takes. “I don’t think there is the understanding of that happening,” she said.
Why any company or country would want to do business with the U.S. Government at this point is beyond me.
In his Market Symposium presentation, Iacob Koch-Weser, of Boston Consulting Group outlined four possible trade scenarios we could find ourselves in.
- Two Sets of Rules: The U.S. runs its own system while the rest of the world (80% of trade) continues with WTO rules.
- North America Stronghold: The U.S., Canada and Mexico form a trade bloc – forcing the rest of the world to choose between WTO and forming new blocs.
- Multimodal Patchwork: Countries form new blocs and preferential agreements, creating multiple competing economic spheres worldwide.
- Every Nation for Itself: Global collaboration breaks down as no bloc holds together, and each country acts alone, turning inward with rising protectionism.
I ask you, do any of these scenarios seem better for the U.S. semiconductor industry than what we had a year ago? Back then, the Chips Acts Funds were starting to flow, regions around the U.S. were flourishing, and other countries were excited to do business with us. Need a reminder? Check out the cover story of last year’s 3D InCites Yearbook.
In my opinion, if #1 takes hold, the rest of the world stand to win big and leave the U.S. far behind. #2 seems highly unlikely, considering the current strained relationships between the U.S. and its neighbors. Numbers #3 and #4 offer similar outcomes, both of which could end up creating over capacity, and supply chain snarls.
The U.S. keeps trying to present itself as the leader in semiconductors. But it’s not. And if it keeps going the way it is, it never will be. The industry itself is expected to expand and grow, but if the U.S. continues in its path of high tariffs, and hard-to-get H1-B visas, they are not creating a favorable environment for other countries to do business there. Europe and Asia’s semiconductor industries will thrive, and leave the U.S. eating their dust.
But that’s just my opinion.
The truth is – none of us really know how this will all shake out. Things are changing in real time. After Trump slapped a 100% tariff on China over the weekend, China retaliated by tightening rare-earth export rules. The impact on companies like TSMC, Intel, and ASML could be massive.
I think the companies who’ve chosen NOT to go after CHIPS Act funding are the ones who will come out on top. Kudos to them.
Rant over.
